Sales activity in Hamilton-Burlington was up October 8% over September, but down 18% over last year. New listings are down 9% over September and 23% over October 2020. The lack of available Hamilton homes for sale contributes to the significant price increase over last year. In the Hamilton-Burlington area, residential home prices are up by 27% over 2020. Although the fall market started off slow, we are seeing an increase in sales activity and have already experienced first-hand a busy start to November.
Political, regulatory, and economic happenings continue to contribute to the overall state of the Canadian real estate market and recent news items will contribute to changes to the market in 2022. More on that later.
Here’s a closer look at what happened in October:
Hamilton Market Activity
| Variable | 2021 | 2020 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 807 | 990 | -18% |
| Dollar Volume | $697,630,327 | $657,833,024 | 6% |
| New Listings | 875 | 1,127 | -22% |
| Active Listings | 457 | 867 | -47% |
| Months of Inventory | 0.6 | 0.9 | -0.3 |
| Average Price | $864,474 | $664,478 | 30% |
| Median Price | $780,000 | $627,500 | 24% |
| Median Days on Market | 8.0 | 11.0 | -3.0 |
| Average Days on Market | 13.5 | 19.1 | -5.6 |
Burlington Market Activity
| Variable | 2021 | 2020 | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 246 | 369 | -33% |
| Dollar Volume | $282,552,343 | 3 $330,091,934 | -14% |
| New Listings | 264 | 422 | -37% |
| Active Listings | 120 | 334 | -64% |
| Months of Inventory | 0.5 | 0.9 | -0.4 |
| Average Price | $1,148,587 | $894,558 | 28% |
| Median Price | $1,049,500 | $800,500 | 31% |
| Median Days on Market | 7.0 | 10.0 | -3.0 |
| Average Days on Market | 11.5 | 16.5 | -5.0 |
Sales Activity
In October 2021 there were 1,329 residential property sales reported for the Hamilton-Burlington area. Sales were up significantly by 8% over last month, however, they were down 27% year-over-year.
New Listings
New listings in Hamilton-Burlington were down 9% over September 2021, and down 23% over October 2020. Although we are currently in the middle of the traditionally busy fall market, we are still seeing historic low inventory levels. However, anecdotally, we are seeing a strong start to November so far.
Active Listings
Active listings in Hamilton were down by 47% year-over-year and down 64% in Burlington over October 2020. These are record low numbers that are certainly contributing to increased competition for buyers and rising home prices in the region.
Months of Inventory
Months of inventory is also down over last year. In Hamilton, months of inventory is down 0.3 points from 0.9 in 2020 to 0.6 in 2020. Real estate in Burlington, Ontario also saw a decrease in months of inventory. In 2020 we saw 0.9 and in 2021 that number is now 0.5, representing a decrease of 0.4.
Average Days on Market
In line with our report of increased competition among buyers, the average home in Hamilton spent 16.8 days on the market in September 2021 over last year’s 19.7 days on the market. Burlington has seen an even bigger jump with homes staying on the market for 12.7 days on average in September 2021 compared to 19.4 days on the market in 2020.
Average Prices
According to the Realtors® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB), prices in the region are skyrocketing. Overall, the average price in the area was $922,297–an increase of 5% over September 2021 and a staggering 27% over October 2020.
In Hamilton, the average residential home price increased year-over-year by 30% from $664,478 in October 2020 to $864,474 in 2021.
Burlington prices are on the rise too, up 28% year-over-year. Residential home prices went up from $894,558 in October 2020 to well past the million-dollar mark at $1,148,587 in October 2021.
RAHB reported a 4% decrease in the average price of apartment-style condos month-over-month. Experts say apartment-style Hamilton condos for sale are a great option for buyers looking to enter the market because of their lower price-point, but that decreased supply will cause tight competition in this sector as well.
In the News
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), the average home price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) hit an all-time high in the month of October. As low inventory levels persist, prices continue to rise. According to TRREB President, Kevin Crigger, “The only sustainable way to address housing affordability in the GTA is to deal with the persistent mismatch between demand and supply.”
The Bank of Canada has announced an end to its bond-buying stimulus program, marking the beginning of the end of low-interest rates for Canadians. Amid concerns of supply disruptions driving up inflation, the bank will end its Quantitative Easing program, which could see borrowing costs rise as soon as April 2022. As a result, homebuyers would be wise to act swiftly and lock in mortgage rates before they spike again.
Top Scotiabank economist, Derek Holt is predicting that The Bank of Canada will raise the benchmark interest rate up to 8 times between now and the end of 2023. The economist says that starting in July of next year, policymakers will begin a “series of 8 25-basis-point hikes” that will be followed by more hikes in September, October, and December before moving to quarterly increases in 2023.
A research paper recently published by The Smart Prosperity Institute reported that Ontario will need to build 1 million new homes in the next 10 years to meet supply needs. The report, which was funded in part, by the Ontario Builders Association included 910,000 homes for the formation of new households, 65,000 homes to address current housing gaps, and a 25,000 house “cushion” for unexpected population growth.
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A Look at What’s to Come
The Fall Market is well underway, although September was slightly slower than expected, October exploded with activity and November is already off to a busy start. Inventory is still at historic lows and prices continue to soar. There is very little available for buyers at the moment. With the news of The Bank of Canada taking the first step in an eventual rise of interest rates, economists are predicting interest hikes as early as April of 2022. Buyers should lock in mortgage rates as soon as possible while sellers should capitalize on the lowest inventory environment in history while buyers have high borrowing ability now.
Although the fall market had a slower start than expected, October exploded with activity and we are already starting to see November ramp up as well. With inventory at historic lows, it’s difficult for buyers to make a move. Competition remains high and there simply are not enough properties available to satisfy the demand of buyers.
With the news of The Bank of Canada ending its QE program, economists are predicting the rise of interest rates as early as April 2022. Buyers should lock in mortgage rates as soon as possible while remaining flexible to act quickly in this tight market.
For sellers, it would be pertinent to take advantage of the current lower interest rates and record low inventory. List now when buyers still have absolute high borrowing ability.
Whether you’re looking to buy or sell real estate across the region from Ancaster real estate to Burlington, the time is right to take action. Michael St. Jean Realty can help you navigate these challenging conditions.
In this market, expert advice makes all the difference. If you have a question about buying or selling your home, call us at 1-844-484-SOLD or email us here.
