There were 620 home sales reported in the Hamilton-Burlington area in September 2023, according to the Realtors® Association of Hamilton-Burlington (RAHB). This is the slowest September market we have seen since 2010.
The decline in sales was met by a “surge” in new listings, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio in the area to fall to 30%. RAHB president, Nicolas von Bredow cites higher lending rates as one of the primary reasons for this slowdown, as many potential buyers have sidelined their plans while rising interest rates may have caused some homeowners to panic and list their homes.
The unadjusted benchmark price in the RAHB area also fell month-over-month to $854,200, a 1% decrease over August. Although prices are down on a monthly basis, the average price is still higher than in 2022 and significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels when the average price was around $581,500.
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Let’s take a closer look at what happened in the local real estate market last month:
Hamilton Market Activity
| Variable | 2023 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 373 | -17.1% |
| New Listings | 1,286 | 21.0% |
| Active Listings | 1,717 | 14.3% |
| Months of Inventory | 4.6 | 37.9% |
| Average Price | $776,819 | -0.7% |
| Median Price | $725,000 | 0.7% |
| Average Days on Market | 25.7 | -6.8% |
Burlington Market Activity
| Variable | 2023 | Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sales Activity | 135 | -27.4% |
| New Listings | 393 | -4.4% |
| Active Listings | 472 | -3.7% |
| Months of Inventory | 3.5 | 32.7% |
| Average Price | $1,058,151 | 0.5% |
| Median Price | $1,002,000 | 4.8% |
| Average Days on Market | 23.0 | -2.1% |
Before buying or selling, make sure you’re fully familiar with the local real estate market. You can read our past Hamilton-Burlington real estate market report updates right here.
Sales Activity
There were 373 residential home sales in Hamilton last month, down 17.1% over last year. Burlington had 135 home sales reported, which was down 27.4% over last year.
New Listings
New listings in Hamilton were way up by 21% last month with 1,286 new listings coming to the market. New listings in Burlington were slightly down with 393 reported, down 4.4% over September 2022.
Active Listings
Inventory in Hamilton was up 14.3% over September 2022 with 1,711 active listings. Burlington had a slight dip in inventory of about 3.7% with 472 active listings.
Months of Inventory
Months of inventory or supply is often used as a tool to measure the “type” of market conditions we are currently experiencing. Anything above 3 months is typically considered to be a “Buyer’s Market.” Both Hamilton and Burlington are seeing more balanced conditions with Months of Supply in Hamilton reaching 4.6 (37.9% higher than last year). Burlington’s months of supply hit 3.5, which is up 32.7% over last year.
Average Days on Market
Although new listings and months of supply were up in both cities, the average days on market were actually down over September 2022. In Hamilton, we saw 25.7 average days on market, which is down 6.8% year-over-year. Burlington had 23 days on market on average, which is down 2.1% over last year.
Average Prices
The average residential price in Hamilton for September was $776,819, which is down by a marginal 0.7% over last year. Conversely, in Burlington, the average residential price was up 0.5% over last year, resting at $1,058,151.
In the News
With more new listings on the market, Toronto home prices slipped for the second consecutive month in September. The benchmark price for a home in Toronto declined by 0.8% last month to $1.15 million. Sales in the city were also at a six-month low with only 5,205 sales reported in September. Similarly to the situation in Hamilton, experts cite higher lending rates as one of the main issues causing the market to slow down.
Earl Davis, the head of fixed income and money markets at BMO Global Asset Management predicts the Bank of Canada will raise interest rates at least once more in 2023 before pausing and holding rates for the entirety of 2024. Davis says the central bank needs to hike once more to fight inflation, but predicts Canada’s economy is headed for a “soft landing” not a recession. The next Bank of Canada interest rate announcement will happen on October 25.
A recent report from Statistics Canada shows that Canada’s population has grown at the highest rate over 12 months since 1957. The period in question is July 1, 2022-2023 when the population surged 2.9%. This increase was primarily driven by international students, temporary workers, and immigrants. Experts say if this rate of growth is sustained, Canada’s population will double by 2025.
A report from the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives illustrates a dire situation in the construction of new single-family homes in Canada. Construction of these homes was down 21% in July from April 2020, which was also the lowest point in the pandemic. The number of new builds in July is also down 36% since February 2022, around the time when the Bank of Canada’s interest rate hiking cycle began.
A Look at What’s to Come
We’re well into the Fall Market and the fourth and final quarter of 2023. We have seen a large number of new listings hit the market since Labour Day, falling in line with the busy Fall Market we predicted.
The market has moderated since the summer when new rate hikes took place, but we still expect to see activity pick up in the coming weeks.
The Bank of Canada meets again on October 25th for their next policy meeting. Economists are currently split 50-50 on whether the Central Bank will increase rates or continue to pause. However, most agree that after this month, the bank will hold its rate for at least the next six months until inflation returns to its 2% target. Most economists predict this will happen mid-2024, at which point, we could expect to see rates come down.
If you are thinking about selling your home before the end of the year, now is the time to get your home on the market.
Are you thinking about making a real estate move in the near future? Call us at 1-844-484-SOLD or email us here for everything you need to know about buying and selling in this market.
