The first month of the 2019 real estate market has come to a close. January felt like a fresh start for many buyers, sellers and investors, as well as those of us in the real estate industry. 2018 was a year of significant change from a regulatory standpoint, most specifically the new mortgage rules and the stress test that was enacted last year. These were new things for the market to absorb. As of January, everything looks positive, confidence levels are high, and many people were coming right out of the gate in the very first few days of the new year and getting into the market.
Sales were down 3 percent, but that only tells a small part of the story. In January 2018, 389 homes traded hands; in January 2019, 376 homes traded hands.
We’ve seen sales levels recovering over the last three to six months, and we are now at a point where we are just about even with sales from the year prior. If you go back to January of 2018, the new stress test and mortgage rules had come into effect on January 1. However, anyone with a mortgage pre-approval in place was still able to purchase based on the prior rules. We did still see heightened levels of activity in January of 2018 because buyers were racing to get in before their approvals expired.
January 2019 is being compared to a month in which sales were abnormally higher than what we would expect. Despite that, we came close to those numbers. Moving forward, we will likely see sales bump back into a positive territory. In 2019, we should see both sales and prices up, especially once we start comparing our sales to the months following the new mortgage stress test.
New listings are up 22 percent. This is a significant boost in new listings. Last year we had 661 listings hit the market, and this year we had 809. Our phone was ringing constantly, we received many new inquiries from sellers thinking about selling their home.
Active listings are up 38 percent. There are a lot more listings on the market: 827 listings were active last January, and this year that number is 1,139. This also impacts the inventory numbers. Inventory is up 0.9 percent.
Last year we had about 2.1 months of inventory, and this year we have three months of inventory. Almost a full month of inventory is being added year over year. I’d attribute this to a slower November and December versus the year prior. We saw a more traditional November and December this year.
Three months of inventory is still very healthy. It’s expected that during seasonally slower months inventory will increase. As we get into the busier season, our inventory will decrease.
Meanwhile, average sales prices are up 2 percent. We continue to see these average sales prices up month over month. Last year, the average home sold was $485,658, and this year that number is $495,905. We are hovering around that $500,000 mark now fairly consistently.
Average days on market is down 0.6 percent. Last January it was at 42.9 days. This year it’s at 42.3. Homes are selling quicker. This number will tighten up as we get into the busier months. In traditionally slower months, it’s not unusual to see that number increase.
Something to take note of is the difference in housing prices by type. We saw single family homes leading the way at much higher than 2 percent. We saw condos down a bit and townhomes a little in between. Previously, single family stock, especially in the $500,000+ bracket, was not faring as well as the other types of housing. This month we saw single family homes coming back, posting higher average sales prices.
Overall, it was a very good month. Hamilton prices are continuing to rise. We see sales increasing. We expect both of those to be up significantly by the end of the year.
There is a renewed sense of confidence, and it really feels that both buyers and sellers see 2019 as a fresh start. The fundamentals are strong. We just had a record number of jobs created in the recent jobs report. The economy is performing well on a national, regional and local level. All the right things are in place for our market to continue to grow and continue to be healthy.
At this point, it’s just a matter of confidence, continuing to pick up, and those last sort of lingering effects of the government policies. Regardless, we’re off to a fresh start for 2019.
