The Realtor’s Association of Hamilton-Burlington has released our July 2018 market stats — and it appears that the worst effects of the Fair Housing Plan and New Mortgage rules are well behind us. June was, of course, the first month that our stats were being compared to more balanced and stable sales months, and we are starting to see things even out. We predicted last month we would see the stats bounce back overnight, as the stats are compiled on a year-over-year basis for individual months.
Real estate statistics aren’t telling you whether prices are going up or down or sales are going up or down month-to-month, but rather they’re comparing this month to the same month the year prior. This can skew the numbers, making them confusing for customers, and leading to deceptive practices in the media. Our March, April, and May months this year were compared to some of the busiest months in Hamilton’s history, but this has now evened out, as we move into more stable territory.
July saw a continuation of what we saw in June, with the market continuing to accelerate. Sales were down in March, April, and May by as much as 50% — which is, of course, the amount of homes trading hands, not prices. Prices were down somewhere in the neighborhood of 3 to 5% during the same time period, though prices have been increasing throughout 2018 — they’ve just been compared to historically busy months.
Last month we saw average sale price growth bounce back into positive territory again. This month we are seeing a continuation of that in a big way. Sales have completely recovered. We are now positive. Sales are up 1.8%, which I believe is the first time sales have grown in a month since this time last year. Again, this is very much in line with what we expected to see. We’ve actually sold more homes in July 2018 than we sold in July 2017.
Listings are down 6.4%. Listing inventory is tightening, which is good news for sellers. Following the Fair Housing Plan, we did see a large amount of listing inventory hit the market, so we are comparing ourselves to that period last year.
Average sales prices are up 7.6%. Of course, our sales prices in Hamilton have been up virtually every single month from last Spring up until March of this year. After that, we saw sales prices come down slightly, but only because of the way they were being compared to the prices a year prior. As we expected, prices are continuing to move forward.
Anyone who thinks otherwise is not paying attention to the fundamentals of the market, in addition to what is going on here in Hamilton specifically. Real estate is a very localized thing. There are drastic differences between Hamilton and other communities across the country — even Burlington.
Average days on market are 25% higher than last year. Last year, your home would have sold in an average of 24 days, though that all depends on who is selling your home and marketing it. This year, it’s 30 days. We are still at the 30-day mark, and the percentage change is actually going down.
End-of-month listings were 3.25% higher than last year; last year we ended the month with 1,638 homes on the market; this year we ended the month with 1,691. That is also coming down dramatically, in addition to new listings coming to the market. This indicates the further tightening of the market, which is mostly to the benefit of sellers.
I’ve fielded numerous negative comments, with individuals calling me out on the fact that home values are rising in Hamilton. I’m not sure what to say, because the stats are the stats: values are rising. Things are rising in Hamilton. You can compare us to the three biggest months in history if you like, but that’s not really productive. At the end of the day, our market is stable, growing, and accelerating.
I think it says a lot that, given the 20% budget cut for many buyers, and all the other changes that have taken place over the last 12 months, Hamilton is still shining. These numbers are also taking into account the fact that interest rates have gone up multiple times since this time last year. Hamilton is faring very, very well, and the prospectus for the market here is extremely positive.
So just a quick update on the stats and our findings for July. For buyers, if you’ve been waiting, there’s really nothing to wait for. If the last few months weren’t going to bring you some affordability, the next twelve months won’t either. Sellers, we aren’t going to be seeing last March, April and May any time soon. With interest rates growing, this is a good time to put your homes on the market.
We will see how things play out rolling into August. In our office, June was the biggest June in history. July was a little slower, which is typical following such a massive month. August is shaping up to potentially be a bigger month than it was last year, with many sales on the board. It’s looking as though things are setting up for a very busy fall, and everything in the real estate market is looking like it’s back to normal.
