September sales activity in Hamilton-Burlington was slightly up over August by about 2%. However, year-over-year, the numbers paint a different picture. Significant inventory shortages have resulted in sales dropping by 30% year-over-year and new listings dropping by 26% over September 2020. Although we are well into the traditional “busy fall market” the demand for housing still greatly outpaces the supply, there are simply not enough Hamilton homes for sale available, resulting in rising prices and even more competition for buyers heading into the fourth quarter of 2021.
Here’s a closer look at what happened in September:
Hamilton Market Activity
|Months of Inventory||0.8||0.9||-0.1|
|Median Days on Market||8.0||11.0||-3.0|
|Average Days on Market||16.8||19.7||-2.9|
Burlington Market Activity
|Months of Inventory||0.5||1.0||-0.5|
|Median Days on Market||8.0||11.0||-3.0|
|Average Days on Market||12.7||19.4||-6.7|
In September 2021 there were 1,226 residential property sales reported for the Hamilton-Burlington area. Sales were actually up 2% over last month, however, they were 30% lower year-over-year.
New listings in Hamilton-Burlington were up 14% over August 2021, and down 26% over September 2020. Although we are seeing extraordinarily low inventory levels, it’s still expected to see a slight increase over August, as we enter the traditionally busy fall market. However, the increase is nowhere in line to meet the demand at this point.
Active listings in Hamilton were down by 41% year-over-year and down 40% in Burlington over September of last year. With such low active listings, we are seeing increased competition for buyers. This trend of low inventory is expected to continue for the foreseeable future.
Months of Inventory
Despite stark year-over-year changes in most aspects, Hamilton’s months of inventory has remained mostly stable, only dropping 0.1 from 0.9 months of inventory in September 2020 to 0.8 months of inventory for September 2021. In Burlington, months of inventory is down year-over-year by 0.5 from 1.0 months of inventory in September 2020 to 0.5 months of inventory last month.
Average Days on Market
In line with our report of increased competition among buyers, the average home in Hamilton spent 16.8 days on the market in September 2021 over last year’s 19.7 days on the market. Burlington has seen an even bigger jump with homes staying on the market for 12.7 days on average in September 2021 compared to 19.4 days on the market in 2020.
Overall, the average home price for Hamilton-Burlington was $881,656 for September 2021. This is a steep 5% increase over August, and a significant 22% increase over last year.
In Hamilton, the average residential home price increased year-over-year by 20% from $663,759 in September 2020 to $796,611 in 2021.
Burlington saw a similar increase of 18% year-over-year. Residential home prices went up from $905,884 in September 2020 past the million-dollar mark to $1,064,685 in September 2021.
The Realtors® Association for Hamilton-Burlington reported an 18% increase in the average price of apartment-style condos month-over-month, however, experts say this increase is not a reflection of current Hamilton condos for sale but instead represents an uptake of luxury condo sales in the Burlington area.
In the News
This month, the Bank of Canada reported that it will keep its key interest rate target on hold. Reasons for this include the potential fourth wave of the pandemic and subsequent supply bottlenecks that could hinder economic recovery in the fourth quarter. The target for the overnight rate is 0.25%, which the central bank says is the “effective lower bound.” The bank also reports that the economy still has excess capacity and that economic recovery still requires “extraordinary monetary policy support.” (Source: CTV News)
In the aftermath of the federal election, the Liberal Party once again obtained a minority government. On the campaign trail, they promised several key policies aimed at improving the housing market conditions such as the creation of a Tax-Free First Home Savings Account, and a Homebuyers Bill of Rights to ban blind-bidding. However, none of these measures will have a significant positive effect on the market. In fact, many of the policies will actually only fuel demand even further.
Michael St. Jean Realty was on CHCH Morning Live this month discussing the results of the election and how the Liberal Party’s housing plan will actually impact Canadians at a base level. You can watch the segment right here.
A Look at What’s to Come
Although we are well into the fall market, new listings and inventory are at historical lows and we’re currently experiencing one of the tightest seller’s markets ever seen. Across the region from Ancaster real estate to Burlington, there are simply not enough homes available to satisfy eager buyers. This is causing prices to rise and signals an advantageous time for sellers to take advantage of the market to sell their homes.
For buyers, on the other hand, it’s important to know that market is simply not in your favour, and it probably won’t be for years to come. The Bank of Canada has already signaled the end of COVID-era low-interest rates. So both buyers and sellers need to act swiftly to capitalize on their fair share of the market.
If you’re planning to sell a home in the Hamilton-Burlington real estate market right now, we recommend doing so sooner rather than later to take advantage of the lowest inventory we’ve seen in a long time. For buyers, on the other hand, they would be wise to remain steadfast in their house hunt to take advantage of the low-interest rates while they’re still around.
Both parties would benefit from working with an experienced Hamilton real estate broker to navigate this challenging market.
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